Autumn Budget Predictions 2026: Impact on Landlords & Property Investors

Andy Burnham's government has confirmed the Autumn Budget for 28 October 2026, John Healey's first as Chancellor. No immediate changes to stamp duty or council tax are planned as part of early budget predictions. The last Budget already locked in a 2-point rise in property income tax rates from April 2027 and a High Value Council Tax Surcharge on £2m+ homes from 2028. CGT, IHT, and planning/council housing funding remain open questions ahead of Budget day.

A new Prime Minister. A new economic model. And an Autumn Budget that could reshape the landscape for property investors and landlords more significantly than any in recent years.

Andy Burnham arrived on the steps of Downing Street in July 2026 promising a "circuit breaker for Britain" - a break from the political instability that has seen six Prime Ministers in a decade, and a new economic direction focused on decentralisation, re-industrialisation, and bringing life's essentials back under stronger public control.

For landlords and property investors, that framing matters. A government oriented around housing affordability, council home building, and cost of living intervention is likely to approach the Autumn Budget with property firmly in its sights. Here's what we know, what's been signalled, and what landlords and investors should be thinking about ahead of 28 October 2026.

First, a Quick Look Back: What Happened in the Last Budget?

The most recent Budget was delivered by Rachel Reeves on 26 November 2025. For the property sector, the headline measures were a 2 percentage point increase to the basic, higher, and additional rates of property income tax, taking effect from April 2027 - pushing the rates to 22%, 42%, and 47% respectively. Reeves also introduced a new High Value Council Tax Surcharge on homes worth over £2 million, due to take effect from April 2028 (based on 2026 property values), alongside new powers for regional mayors to introduce an overnight visitor levy.

Despite months of speculation about a wholesale overhaul of Stamp Duty Land Tax - including proposals to replace it and council tax with new land-value-based taxes - nothing materialised. Capital Gains Tax on property was also left unchanged, following the increases already introduced in the 2024 Budget (18% standard rate, 24% higher rate).

The context matters because Burnham's government inherited those measures, and the Autumn 2026 Budget is expected to either confirm or diverge from that direction.

The New Government's Economic Direction

Burnham's Downing Street speech set out a clear ideological steer: power out of Westminster and into every postcode, life's essentials under stronger public control, and a re-industrialised economy backed by public procurement.

For property, the most immediately relevant signal was housing. Burnham specifically committed to building more council homes as a "fair and sustainable" route to reducing the welfare bill, a framing that positions social and affordable housing as a fiscal tool, not just a social one. That suggests housing supply will be a central theme of the Budget, with council and affordable housing delivery likely to receive significant attention.

What it means for the private rented sector is less certain, but the direction of travel - greater public control, more intervention on affordability - points toward a government that is more likely to add to landlord obligations than to ease them.

Budget Predictions for Landlords and Investors

These are informed budget predictions based on the new government's stated priorities. None of the following is confirmed policy.

Stamp Duty Land Tax

The government has confirmed there are no immediate plans to change stamp duty or council tax in this Budget. That closes off a period of speculation earlier in the summer, triggered by Burnham's own past support for replacing both taxes with a land value tax.

For investors, that removes one layer of uncertainty around acquisition costs - though "no immediate changes" is not the same as "off the table permanently," and a government focused on housing affordability retains limited political incentive to make buy-to-let purchases cheaper in future Budgets.

Capital Gains Tax on Property

No specific changes to property CGT have been signalled ahead of this Budget. The rate last moved in the 2024 Budget (18% standard rate, 24% higher rate) and was left untouched in 2025. That said, with reports of a fiscal gap of at least £22 billion for Healey to close, investors with disposal decisions to make should factor in the possibility of change and take independent financial advice sooner rather than later.

Landlord Taxation

The 2 percentage point increase to property income tax rates confirmed in the last Budget - taking rates to 22%, 42%, and 47% from April 2027 - remains in place and wasn't reversed by the change of government. No further changes to landlord tax treatment, Section 24, or incorporation incentives have been signalled for this Budget, but landlords already facing higher rates from 2027 should be building that into their forecasting now.

Inheritance Tax and Property

Nothing has been confirmed or clearly trailed on IHT as it applies to property assets ahead of this Budget. Given the scale of the fiscal gap Healey is working with, this remains an area worth watching.

Energy Efficiency Funding

The Warm Homes Plan was published back in January 2026, before the change of government, confirming £15 billion of investment over five years and a requirement for privately rented homes in England and Wales to reach EPC Band C by 1 October 2030, with the cost cap for landlords reduced to £10,000. Grant support is available through the Warm Homes Local Grant and Boiler Upgrade Scheme, though eligibility is means-tested and geared toward off-gas and lower-income households.

This is one area where the Budget could bring genuinely good news for landlords, if further grant funding or clarity on the Warm Homes Fund's low-cost finance options for landlords is confirmed. Watch this space.

Council Housing and Planning

Burnham's commitment to building more council homes is likely to come with planning reform and potentially new levies on development, but nothing specific has been confirmed ahead of Budget day. For developers and land investors, the planning landscape could shift meaningfully.

Devolution and Regional Investment

Given Burnham's background as Greater Manchester Mayor and his stated commitment to taking power into every postcode, regional investment has already started moving. Burnham has confirmed that English mayors will receive a share of income tax revenue collected in their area for the first time, and strategic authorities will be able to keep some business rates income locally - both aimed at giving regions greater control over housing, transport, and skills spending.

For property investors already positioned in regeneration areas, including cities like Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds, and Liverpool, this is a tailwind worth watching, and the Budget may bring further detail on how these new revenue streams will be used.

What These Budget Predictions Mean for Landlords and Investors

Budget predictions are rarely 100% accurate, and a government this early in its term has both more ambition and more uncertainty than one in its final year. The honest answer is that the Autumn 2026 Budget could go several ways, but the signals from Burnham's first weeks in office point toward a government that will use the Budget to make housing more affordable and more publicly accountable, not to ease the compliance or tax burden on private landlords.

That doesn't make property investment a worse proposition. It makes preparation more important. Landlords who already operate to a high standard - proper compliance, well-maintained properties, good tenant relationships - are in the strongest position regardless of what the Budget brings.

Investors weighing up new acquisitions before the Budget may want to model the impact of a potential CGT or landlord tax change on their numbers before committing. And anyone with decisions to make on disposals, portfolio restructuring, or EPC upgrade timelines should take independent financial advice sooner rather than later.

If you'd like to talk through how any of the above budget predictions might affect your property or portfolio, the Miller Rose team is here. No scripts, no pressure - just a clear conversation about your situation.

FAQs on Autumn Budget Predictions for 2026

When is the Autumn Budget 2026?

Wednesday 28 October 2026.

Will stamp duty change in the Autumn Budget 2026?

Budget predictions suggest that no immediate changes to stamp duty are currently planned, according to government signals ahead of the Budget. This follows earlier speculation, prompted by Burnham's past support for a land value tax, that SDLT could be overhauled or replaced. Nothing is guaranteed until Budget day itself, so landlords and investors considering acquisitions should stay alert for updates.

Will capital gains tax on property change?

No specific changes have been signalled at the time of writing. Given the scale of the fiscal gap the government is working with, anyone considering a disposal before the Budget should seek independent financial advice.

What does Andy Burnham's government mean for landlords?

The new government has signalled a focus on housing affordability, council home building, devolution, and stronger public control of essentials. A 2 percentage point rise in property income tax rates (to 22%/42%/47% from April 2027) was already confirmed under the previous Chancellor and remains in place. While no further landlord tax measures have been confirmed, the overall direction suggests a government more likely to add to landlord obligations than to reduce them. Staying on top of compliance and operating to a high standard remains the best preparation.

What is the Warm Homes Plan and will it be confirmed in the Budget?

The Warm Homes Plan was published in January 2026 and confirms that all privately rented properties in England and Wales must reach an EPC C rating by 1 October 2030, with a landlord cost cap of £10,000. It's already government policy rather than something the Budget needs to confirm, though the Budget could bring further detail on grant funding and low-cost finance for landlords.

This article reflects publicly available information as of August 2026 and includes speculation on measures not yet confirmed. It is not financial, tax, or legal advice - these are budget predictions. Please seek independent professional advice before acting on anything here.